On the methodology of creating expert systems for the study of regional conflicts and integration

Evseev, Vadim Olegovich
D.Sc. in Economy, Professor, Director of the Master's Program "Russia-Eurasia: Political and Economic Processes" IPACS RANEPA, Moscow, Russia
manrus@mail.ru

Seleznev, Igor Alexandrovich
PhD in Sociology, Assistant Professor, Leading Research Fellow, Center for Strategic Social and Socio-Political Research ISPR FCTAS RAS, Moscow, Russia
igdrake@yandex.ru


Abstract
The report examines the issues of creating expert systems for assessing conflict and integration processes in Eurasia. The methods of political sociology, conflictology, riskology, the use of which allows you to create a database for further analysis, are considered.
The database and analysis methods should take into account the specifics of processes in the post-Soviet space through the prism of two processes: integration and conflict. On the example of regional conflicts, the characteristics of conflict management are given.
The role of event analysis, regression analysis, structural and semantic analysis as formalized methods that are implemented in expert systems by artificial intelligence algorithms is considered too.
Besides, the systematization of costs and risks on the way of interstate integration, which should be taken into account in artificial intelligence algorithms, is given.
Artificial intelligence algorithms should include analysis procedures on the readiness of conflict management for forceful conflict resolution options and characteristics of their understanding of the conflict situation; on the dependence of the influence of social and status factors on the unfolding of the conflict.
The conclusions confirm the important role of experts in creating a database as an information platform for the development of variable algorithms of computational procedures in the structure of artificial intelligence in relation to its algorithmic capabilities in the field of conflict prediction. The proposed methodology allows the implementation of an expert system in a digital computing environment in order to determine the probability of a conflict going into a hot phase.

Keywords: expert systems, methods of political sociology, conflict management, artificial intelligence, modeling, methods of conflict resolution, regional conflicts, Eurasian integration, integration risks